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Money Tips & Info

New code to protect Aussies buying solar panels

Ever thought about investing in solar panels for your home? If so, you’ll know it’s a big decision and there’s a lot to wrap your head around. Fortunately, the consumer watchdog is proposing a new retailer code to make solar purchases safer and easier.

Australia is the sunniest continent on Earth.  Geoscience Australia confirms “The Australian continent has the highest solar radiation per square metre of any continent in the world.”  Africa is the only continent that comes close to Australia in terms of solar coverage.

Which is why it makes sense that more than two million homes have already decked out their rooftops with solar panels.

Cost v Reward

The initial outlay can be between $5,000 and $10,000, however solar installations can pay themselves off within six years. You can then benefit from free energy on the roof and the potential of an income stream from energy sold back to the grid.
Not to mention the carbon emissions you will be saving and being part of the clean energy revolution!

The thing is, household solar can be tricky to research if you’re not familiar with the industry – not to mention all the potential government rebates and incentives you need to wrap your head around.

Fortunately, the ACCC is stepping in

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has proposed a new consumer code for retailers selling solar and energy storage systems, with a draft determination due on September 9.

The New Energy Tech Consumer Code (the Code) sets minimum standards of good practice and consumer protection and will apply to all aspects of customers’ interactions with participating retailers.

That includes their marketing, finance and payments, warranties and complaints handling processes.

“Products like solar panels or battery storage involve significant financial outlays for households,” ACCC Deputy Chair Delia Rickard explains.

“This Code aims to give consumers more protection and more information to help them make informed purchases.”

What will The Code cover?

Signatories to the Code must comply with obligations, including that they:

– avoid high-pressure sales tactics
– ensure their advertising is clear and accurate
– educate consumers about their rights
– provide clear information about product performance and maintenance
– take extra steps to protect vulnerable consumers
– implement effective complaints handling processes.

The proposed code will also effectively prevent signatories from offering finance through ‘buy now pay later’ arrangements.

Financing options

There are a number of state government programs across Australia that offer interest-free loans for eligible households in the solar space, including in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

If you’re not eligible for any of the above schemes, there are other smart ways to finance the installation of household solar.

If you’d like to find out more, get in touch. We’d be happy to talk you through some of your options.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.
Government and Legislation

Caviar and wine, anyone? What a court ruling means for you

Indulgences such as caviar, wagyu beef and the finest bottles of wine shouldn’t count against you when lenders assess your application for finance, a Federal Court judge has said.

Ok, so maybe Federal Court Justice Nye Perram has a slightly different grocery list to the rest of us.

But his recent judgement should be welcome news to potential borrowers who have splashed out on the odd luxury over the past six months and are worried that it would completely derail their loan application.

So what’s going on?

Well, the corporate watchdog (the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, aka ASIC) filed a court case against Westpac in 2017 in an attempt to strengthen lending standards.

ASIC argued that Westpac’s automated decision system relied solely on a household expenses benchmark that underestimated real living expenses and, as such, was flawed.

However, Justice Perram ruled that Westpac had done nothing wrong by using its automated system, rather than manually checking the borrowers’ living expenses, when approving more than 260,000 home loans between December 2011 and March 2015.

A tasty morsel from the judgement

Justice Perram said that current laws do not explicitly require banks to check expenses.

“[I’m] unable to discern why, as a matter of principle, the consumer’s declared living expenses must be considered,” he said.

“I may eat wagyu beef every day washed down with the finest shiraz but, if I really want my new home, I can make do on much more modest fare.

“The fact that the consumer spends $100 per month on caviar throws no light on whether a given loan will put the consumer into circumstances of substantial hardship.”

Basically, what Justice Perram is saying is that just because you fork out for expensive items before you apply for a mortgage, doesn’t mean you’re incapable of reducing your expenses once you’ve taken out a loan.

What happened next?

The Australian Financial Review (AFR) followed up on the decision with a scathing smackdown of ASIC in an editorial that asked: “why did ASIC even bother?”.

“Leave banks – the institutions with the expertise and incentive to write good loans – to assess risks for home loans. Not second-guessing bureaucrats,” the editorial stated.

“After all, it is hardly in a bank’s own interest to lend to people who are unlikely to be able to pay the money back.”

CoreLogic Research Analyst Cameron Kusher meanwhile wrote that it was not only a big win for Westpac, but the entire lending industry.

“The judge in the ASIC/Westpac case seems to really get it. While you might spend a lot more before you get a mortgage, getting a loan is about knowing someone has the capacity to change their spending behaviour once they have a mortgage,” he said.

“Lending has become so prescriptive when it is really the unexpected life events that cause someone to default on their mortgage. You can’t foresee everything.”

Meanwhile, ASIC commissioner Sean Hughes said the commission was consulting on new guidance in relation to responsible lending obligations.

What this means for your next loan application

Westpac says the decision provides clarity for the interpretation of responsible lending obligations, however consumer groups who found the decision “disappointing” are calling on the government to amend responsible lending laws.

While this court ruling may have the potential to somewhat relax the tight lending standards currently in place, it’s better to be safe than sorry when applying for a loan and we can provide you with some good tips on how to get your accounts in order.

After all, it is still up to the lender’s discretion (perhaps hold off on the caviar for a while longer!).

So if you’re considering applying for finance in the near future, get in touch.

We’d be more than happy to help guide you through the ever-evolving responsible lending landscape.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.
Interest Rates

Planning ahead: RBA says expect long-term low interest rates

Good news for mortgage holders this week, with the RBA saying “it’s reasonable to expect an extended period of low interest rates”.

Figures released on Wednesday show that core inflation, the RBA’s preferred measure, is currently at 1.4%.

However, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe says it is highly unlikely the RBA will contemplate higher interest rates until it’s confident that inflation has returned to 2-3%.

“Whether or not further monetary easing (aka further rate cuts) is needed, it is reasonable to expect an extended period of low interest rates,” he said in a speech.

“On current projections, it will be some time before inflation is comfortably back within the target range.”

Will the RBA cut rates further this month?

The RBA will meet again on Tuesday, however it’s appearing increasingly unlikely that it will cut rates for a third consecutive month.

That’s because June quarter inflation figures released on Wednesday narrowly beat out the market’s expectations (+0.5.%) with a rise to 0.6%.

As a result, most experts are predicting that will be enough to postpone a third RBA rate cut to 0.75%, but not enough to prevent it from happening between now and the end of the year.

Get in touch

If you want an update on what the RBA’s latest comments on long-term low-interest rates mean for your current home loan situation, then please get in touch.

As always, we’re following the market closely and will be happy to run you through some mortgage and refinancing options.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.
Property Values

Is the housing market finally about to reach rock bottom?

‘Are we there yet?’ That seems to be the million dollar question.  We’ll take a look at whether or not the property market is finally starting to stabilise, and when we might start seeing some positive changes in the market to property values. 

Shhh. Can you hear it?

It’s the sound of optimism breathing its way through the Australian property landscape once more.

Let’s run through what some of the property market’s leading experts and reports have said recently.

CoreLogic

CoreLogic says the housing downturn is losing steam as the pace of declining values continued to reduce in May.

With Australia’s average housing affordability the best it has been since 2016, CoreLogic’s Head of Research for Australia, Cameron Kusher predicts “that price falls will settle later this year, followed by modest price growth starting from 2020”.

Westpac

Consumers think now’s a pretty good time to buy a house, according to the Westpac sentiment survey’s ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index.

“Housing-related sentiment showed a clear response to the lowering in interest rates, although again some of the gains were more muted than seen in past rate cuts,” Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan said.

AMP Capital

Since peaking in October 2017, house prices in capital cities have fallen about 10%. Forecasts had suggested they’d fall as far as 15%, but AMP Capital believes they’ll now only bottom out at 12% later this year.

“The combination of the removal of the threat to property tax concessions, earlier interest rate cuts, financial help for first home buyers and APRA relaxing its 7% interest rate test points to house prices bottoming earlier and higher than we have been expecting,” said Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist, AMP Capital.

ANZ

ANZ’s Home Owners Lead, Kate Gibson, says they’re seeing suburbs and towns in every state where it is more affordable to buy than rent. Here’s the list if you’re interested.

“This shift, combined with record low interest rates, is driving more first home buyers to look at entering the market,” Ms Gibson said.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

According to the latest ABS data, the value of lending commitments to households rose 0.6% in April 2019.

“The steep decline in owner-occupier lending commitments seen since late 2017 appears to be slowing,” said ABS Chief Economist, Bruce Hockman.

Want to know more?

The nationwide property market might still be trending down. But optimism seems to be on the way up.

If you’d like to know how this shifting landscape might affect you and your lending situation, then please get in touch!

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.
Interest Rates

RBA goes back-to-back with cash rate cuts

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to a new record low of 1%. Yep, that’s right, back-to-back rate cuts within just one month.

The RBA last cut the official cash rate to the previously historic low of 1.25% on June 4, which also happened to be the first rate cut in almost three years (since August 2016).

Why the RBA has made back-to-back cuts

RBA Governor Philip Lowe says this second rate cut in as many meetings was made to support employment growth and provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term target.

“The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable. However, the uncertainty generated by the trade and technology disputes is affecting investment and means that the risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside,” he says.

Lowe adds that while conditions in most housing markets remain soft, there are some tentative signs that prices are now stabilising in Sydney and Melbourne. Growth in housing credit has also stabilised recently.

“Today’s decision to lower the cash rate will help make further inroads into the spare capacity in the economy. It will assist with faster progress in reducing unemployment and achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target,” Lowe says.

Want to know what this rate cut means for your home loan?

On the back of this RBA decision, you may see a number of lenders advertising interest rate cuts.

You’ll also probably hear a lot of talk about whether lenders will pass on the full cut, a partial cut, or not at all.

With two RBA cuts so close together, it might get a bit confusing as to whether lenders have passed on this rate cut, or only the one before it.

The good news is we’re following the market closely and can tell which lenders are passing this second rate cut on to their customers in full, and which lenders aren’t.

So if you’d like to find out, then please get in touch – we’d be happy to break it down for you.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.
Money Tips & Info|Tax

Getting hounded by ATO impersonators? Don’t get scammed this tax season

Tax time is just around the corner, which means ATO impersonators are pulling out their bag of tricks to try and scam you. Here are the main scams currently doing the rounds.

It’s fair to say that no one likes getting on the wrong side of the ATO. And this is one of the main reasons why ATO tax scams are so effective.

The other main reason is that these scams are becoming increasingly sophisticated and tech-savvy.

Not only do they look more convincing, but they’re also reaching more people through a wider number of distribution channels, such as SMS, robo-calls, and emails.

Below we’ve outlined some of the latest scams to ensure your monthly budget, mortgage repayments or savings account doesn’t get thrown into disarray.

Fake tax agent (phone scam)

The scam: a scammer pretending to be from the ATO sets up a three-way phone call between themselves, the victim and another scammer, who pretends to be an accountant who works at the same practice as the victim’s tax agent (the fake tax agent advises that the victim’s actual tax agent is currently unavailable).

The two scammers then work together to convince the victim that they owe thousands of dollars to the ATO, and that they need to immediately pay off the debt to avoid going to jail.

They’ll then ask the victim to pay using unusual methods of payment such as iTunes, Bitcoin cryptocurrency, store gift cards or pre-paid visa cards.

Avoid being scammed: know the status of your tax affairs by checking your details via myGov. Or hang up and independently call your tax agent or the ATO on 1800 008 540.

Extra tip: a variation of this scam is when the scammer offers a tax refund but advises that you have to provide a personal credit card number for the funds to be deposited into. Instead of the scammer depositing money they’ll instead steal funds from these cards.

Tax refund notification (SMS scam)

The scam: scammers are texting people informing them that they are due to receive a tax refund.

However, if you click on the link it will take you to a fake ‘Tax Refund’ form, where it will ask you to fill out your personal information (which the scammers will then steal!).

Avoid being scammed: the ATO doesn’t have an online ‘Tax Refund’ form and will never send you an email or SMS that asks you to access online services via a hyperlink.

Extra tip: all online management of your tax affairs should be carried out via your genuine myGov account, which you should only ever access by typing out my.gov.au into your URL address bar.

Imitating ATO phone numbers (phone scam)

The scam: the ATO is reporting an increased number of scammers contacting people using phone numbers that make it look like they’re genuinely from the ATO.

The numbers that have been appearing most frequently are 6216 1111 and 1800 467 033, but numbers for individual ATO staff members have been used as well.

The scammer will usually claim the potential victim has an outstanding tax debt and threaten them with arrest if it’s not paid immediately. Sometimes voicemail messages are left.

Avoid being scammed: remember that the ATO will never threaten you with arrest, demand immediate payment, refuse to allow you to speak with a trusted advisor or tax agent, or present a phone number on caller ID.

Extra tip: never call a scammer back on the number they provide. If you are in any doubt about an ATO call, hang up and phone the ATO directly (on 1800 008 540) to check if the call was legitimate.

myGov tax refund notification (email scam)

The scam: scammers are emailing people from a fake myGov email address, asking them to fill out an application to receive a tax refund – similar to the SMS scam above.

This scam is currently tricking victims because it displays the ATO’s myGov logo and the links look as though they’ll send you to the myGov website (spoiler: they don’t).

Avoid being scammed: do not click anywhere in these emails as they contain malicious links. As mentioned in the SMS scam, the ATO doesn’t have an online ‘Tax Refund’ form.

Extra tip: if the bottom of the suspected scammer’s email contains a line that says ‘If you feel you received this email by mistake or wish to unsubscribe, click here’, don’t click. It’s most likely another nefarious link.

Final word

If you ever suspect that you’re being scammed, don’t feel obliged to stay on the phone to be polite.

Simply hang up the phone straight away (or close the email) and either check your myGov account or directly contact your accountant.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.
Interest Rates

Will lenders pass on the RBA rate cut to you?

The RBA has cut the official cash rate to a new record low of 1.25%. But hang on a sec… Will lenders even pass on the cut in full? Today we’ll look at how you can make the RBA rate cut work for you.

The Reserve Bank has cut interest rates to 1.25% – down from 1.5% – which is the first rate cut in almost three years (since August 2016).

“The Board took this decision to support employment growth and provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term target,” said RBA Governor Philip Lowe in a statement.

But will the banks pass the cuts on?

Well, that’s to be determined by the banks. However, the government has urged them to pass on the cuts in full to customers.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg met with Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn the day before the cut was announced after similar meetings with other major bank CEOs.

“I expect all banks to pass on the benefits of sustained reductions in funding costs,” said Mr Frydenberg.

What next?

Well, on the back of the RBA decision, you may see a number of lenders advertising interest rate cuts.

What can be hard to determine is if they’re offering to pass on the full cut, a partial cut, or simply re-advertising a rate they’ve been offering for months.

So what to do?

Well, the good news is that we’re following the market closely. We’ll know which lenders are passing the rate cut on to their customers in full, and which lenders aren’t.

So if you see or hear about a rate cut from a lender that you want to know more about, your best bet is to get in touch with us and we can give you a good idea of how it compares to other lenders in the market and/or whether there are other options that are more suited to your situation.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.
Home and Investment Loans

APRA suggests banks relax key lending criteria

Here’s a bit of good news: you may be able to borrow more for your next home loan after the prudential regulator sent a letter to the banks asking them to relax a key lending criteria.

In a letter to lenders, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has proposed removing its guidance that lenders should assess whether borrowers can afford their repayment obligations using a minimum interest rate of at least 7% (although most ADIs currently use 7.25%).

Instead, APRA has proposed that authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) use an interest rate buffer of 2.5% over the loan’s actual interest rate when assessing a customer’s ability to manage repayments.

How you’ll be assessed

CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher has done a pretty good job of breaking down how you’ll be assessed under these proposed changes:

“If someone is looking to borrow at an interest rate 3.9%, the borrower would previously have been assessed on their ability to repay the mortgage at an interest rate of 7.25%,” he said.

“Now they would be assessed on their ability to repay at a lower 6.4% (3.9% + 2.5% buffer).”

Kusher added that the proposed APRA changes seem sensible given the interest rate environment with the expectation that rates will fall from here and remain lower for longer.

“Furthermore, since 2014 it has become much more difficult to get a mortgage, that is partly because of this serviceability assessment,” he said.

Why the change?

APRA chair Wayne Byres said the operating environment for ADIs had evolved since 2014, prompting APRA to review the ongoing appropriateness of the current guidance.

“APRA introduced this guidance as part of a suite of measures designed to reinforce sound residential lending standards at a time of heightened risk,” said Mr Byres.

“Although many of those risk factors remain – high house prices, low interest rates, high household debt, and subdued income growth – two more recent developments have led us to review the appropriateness of the interest rate floor.”

Mr Byres said with interest rates at record lows, and likely to remain at historically low levels for some time, the gap between the 7% floor and actual rates paid had become quite wide in some cases, and “possibly unnecessarily so”.

What does this mean for you – the borrower?

Mr Byres said the changes are likely to increase the maximum borrowing capacity for a given borrower.

However, he warned banks that the changes are not intended to signify any lessening in the importance that APRA places on the maintenance of sound lending standards.

“The proposed changes will provide ADIs with greater flexibility to set their own serviceability floors, while still maintaining a measure of prudence through the application of an appropriate buffer to reflect the inherent uncertainty in credit assessments,” Mr Byres said.

What next?

A four-week consultation will close on 18 June, ahead of APRA releasing a final version of the updated guidance.

CoreLogic’s Kusher said the changes will allow some borrowers who can’t quite access a mortgage currently to get one.

“Overall for the housing market, it will mean more people are able to get a mortgage. These proposed changes in conjunction with the uncertainty of the election now behind will potentially provide additional positives for the housing market,” Kusher said.

In the meantime, if you’d like to find out if these changes might help increase your borrowing capacity, then get in touch. We’d be more than happy to run through your situation with you.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.
Government and Legislation

What the re-elected Coalition government has promised

No doubt, like most, you’re suffering from a bit of election fatigue. But stick with us – here’s one last article that explains what you can expect from the 46th parliament of Australia.

With the Coalition securing enough seats to form a majority Morrison government, this week we thought we’d recap a number of key election promises and how they may impact your financials.

Now, we understand that politics can be somewhat of a … polarising issue, especially straight off the back of a hotly contested election campaign.

So we’ve done our best to take the politics completely out of this and just break it down into simple facts on what‘s been promised moving forward.

1. The big election issues that will remain unchanged

Perhaps the biggest talking point from this election is not what’s changing, but what’s staying the same.

Labor had entered the election campaign promising to halve the capital gains tax discount for investments entered into after 1 January 2020, and limit negative gearing to new housing.

However, the re-elected Coalition government opposed both these policies, so expect them to remain unchanged.

Labor had also planned to abolish the franking credit refund, which would have had an impact on shareholders and self-funded retirees. However, the Coalition campaigned strongly against Labor’s plan.

2. Tax relief

This is a bit of a tricky one.

The Coalition’s pledge to cut personal income tax was perhaps its biggest election promise.

Now, the good news is that last year the government passed a $530 tax cut for people earning up to $90,000 this financial year.

The bad news, however, is that it looks unlikely that the government will be able to pass legislation before the end-of-financial-year deadline to provide an extra $550 in tax relief.

That’s because it’s extremely unlikely that federal parliament will return before June 30, as the writs for the election won’t be returned until late June.

That said, the federal government is looking into other options for delivering the tax cuts, such as having the ATO retrospectively amend assessments once legislation has been passed.

3. First Home Loan Deposit Scheme

It was a policy announcement made late in the election race, but it will be welcomed by many young first home buyers eager to crack the property market.

Up to 10,000 first homebuyers will be given a leg-up into the property market under the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme.

The scheme, which will commence on 1 January 2020, will help eligible first home buyers purchase a house with a deposit as low as 5%, without having to pay Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI).

That means many first home buyers could save around $10,000 in LMI under the scheme.

4. Small business tax relief

For businesses with a turnover of less than $50 million, the government has promised to further reduce the 27.5% tax rate to 26% in 2020–21 and then to 25% the following financial year.

For unincorporated businesses with a turnover less than $5 million, they have introduced a tax discount of 8% (capped at $1,000), which will further increase to 16%.

The Coalition says this small business tax relief plan should benefit 3.4 million businesses employing over 7 million Australians.

Meanwhile, the government has also extended the Instant Asset Write-Off scheme until 30 June 2020.

The scheme allows small and medium businesses to claim immediate deductions of up to $30,000 for new or second-hand depreciable asset purchases, helping them with their cash flow.

Final word

As we’ve outlined above, there are a number of Morrison government policies that may trigger a re-assessment of your finances and tweaks to where money is allocated in your monthly budget.

Perhaps you’ll have a bit extra to pay off your monthly mortgage, small business loan, or to put away for a rainy day.

Whatever the case, if you need our help in any way, you know where to find us. We’d be more than happy to run through your query with you.

 
Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.
Interest Rates|The Economy

Will the RBA cut the cash rate this month?

We don’t like to dust off the old crystal ball and speculate very often, but there’s been so much noise about whether the RBA will cut the official cash rate this Tuesday that we feel compelled to address it.

30 meetings in a row.

That’s how long the RBA has kept the record low official cash rate at 1.5%. All the way back to August 2016.

So with an uninterrupted streak like that, why are we putting this article out now?

Well, it’s fair to say that speculation has hit overdrive that the RBA will make a cut when it meets on Tuesday. But it’s certainly far from a given.

So today, let’s look at some of the main reasons for a cut to the official cash rate, some of the main reasons against, as well as what a rate cut might mean for your home loan.

For: Inflation (or lack thereof)

Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed inflation was totally static in the March quarter, with the consumer price index at 0.0 per cent, bringing the annualised rate down to 1.3 per cent.

The unexpected reading has financial markets and pundits predicting an increased likelihood that the RBA will cut the cash rate this Tuesday.

Basically, the thinking is that by cutting the cash rate, the RBA could give the economy a good ol’ hit with the defibrillators.

ANZ Bank chief executive Shayne Elliott backed the case for cutting official interest rates to a new record low, saying it would boost economic activity and give “breathing space” to people struggling to make their home loan repayments.

“Maybe it will just give a bit of juice into the economy, and get a bit more employment, and put a bit of money back into people’s pockets,” Elliott says.

That said, some people doubt that an official rate cut would be passed on to mortgage holders, as we’ll touch upon later.

For: Falling house prices

Nationally, we’re amidst the worst annual housing price fall since the GFC.

Over the year, median prices nationally fell by 7.2% in average weighted terms.

The declines in the combined capital cities over this period was even larger at 8.4%.

CoreLogic’s research director Tim Lawless says a rate cut could help give the property market a bit of a boost.

“The prospect for lower interest rates is another factor that could support an improvement in housing market activity later this year,” says Lawless, who also adds that “the worst of the housing market conditions are now behind us.”

Against: The federal election

Perhaps the biggest reason why we may not see the RBA announce a rate cut this month is because we’re in the middle of a federal election campaign.

“Changing monetary policy during an election risks the central bank being caught up in a political fight,” says the AFR’s senior economics writers in an analysis piece.

“The RBA last raised interest rates during an election in 2007 and John Howard and Peter Costello never forgave then-governor Glenn Stevens. Howard had campaigned on keeping rates low.”

As we all know, Howard lost that election to Kevin Rudd, and the only other time there was an official cash rate change during a federal election was in 2013 – when Rudd lost to Tony Abbott.

So the track record for rate changes during election campaigns is not good for incumbents.

Against: Would lenders pass on the cuts?

So what would a cut mean for your home loan?

According to an analysis commissioned by the AFR, lenders would keep rates the same, or pass on only half the rate cut. That’s what they did after the last cash rate cut in July 2016, and it’s another reason the RBA might not end up making the cut this month.

If they did, however, and half the cut was passed on, the typical monthly repayment on a $1 million standard variable loan would reduce by just $65, the analysis finds. On the average $400,000 loan, the reduction would be just $26 a month.

Final word

So those are the main reasons for and against a cut to the official cash rate.

What’s a little more clear cut, however, is that most economists are predicting that if it doesn’t happen this month, it will most likely happen in the months to follow – and perhaps twice before the year’s end.

If you’d like to know more about what these potential upcoming cash rate cuts could mean for you and your family, please get in touch – we’d love to run you through it.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

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